HEAVING VOLCANO (Continued)

Last week I referred to a prophetic picture of the Middle East which had Israel at its centre and encircled with hurricanes representing its neighbouring states. The hurricanes were getting ever stronger and more violent and were building up into a huge whirling vortex. That picture was given just a few months before arrival of the widespread uprisings that have been called the “Arab Spring”. It is a picture that has proved genuinely prophetic.

Those uprisings began in Tunisia, whence they spread to neighbouring Libya. Yemen was also thrown into turmoil and Bahrain was threatened. Iraq was already in turmoil due to the US invasion. But the critically important developments have been in Egypt and, more recently, in Syria. These two countries are the most influential of the Arab states and form the cornerstone of the Arab League of 22 nations. The situation in both these countries is at a highly critical stage of impasse, with violent revolution and brutal response evident on the streets of their cities. A major split in the Arab League has emerged as the league has censured Syria. It is not at all the sort of things most observes would have imagined twelve months ago.

So what exactly is happening, and why? In historical terms the unrest constitutes a popular movement against the self-serving and brutal autocratic governments that gained power in the ‘60s and 70s, mainly through army intervention, and deposed the corrupt kingships left over from World War 2. It is a movement for greater freedoms and for political re-structuring that will deal with poverty and injustice. This is genuinely the case even though there are among the “revolutionaries” elements which would like to impose their own brand of dictatorship. It is fundamentally a widespread challenge to the old political order, “l’ancien regime” of the Arab world. It is a challenge to autocracy and a call for something more akin to genuine democracy. That is why it has earned the title of “Arab Spring” – a new birth.

The origin of the movement is very deep and widespread. It is the fruit of a globalised world, of new technological information channels and a new sense of awareness among a growing and vocal middle class. It will not go away. Even Saudi Arabia, despite the immense wealth and power of its princes, is an autocracy that will not ultimately hold out. In the long term some kind of popular rule will be achieved. But if it follows the European nineteenth century experience, that could be another fifty years or even more.

In the short term, however, the outcome is anything but certain. Egypt has just had its first election for a popular government, but extraordinarily the result will not be known until next March! Meanwhile the army is determined to write itself into a place of power in any new constitution, and is not averse to using its muscle on the streets. Alongside that it is clear that the only Egyptian grouping or “party” which has any real cohesiveness is the Moslem Brotherhood, and it looks pretty certain they will get a sufficient number of candidates elected to have the largest say in the proceedings. It is extremely difficult to say just how much the Brotherhood will stick to its original militant and fundamentalist Islamism. There is an old core of hardliners, but there is some evidence that a younger generation of the Brotherhood seem to appreciate that an Islamic take over of the kind that happened in Iran under Khomeini is not really an option. So everything is “up in the air” and will take time to clarify.

Syria is a much more difficult case. Unlike Egypt its autocratic president has not yet been toppled; he is deeply entrenched and threatens all out attack on Israel if the West intervenes as it did in Libya. A much stronger Islamic fundamentalist influence is evident with close links to Iran. All this makes Syria a very violent and unpredictable storm centre.

The worst outcome would be a replacement of Arab autocracies by fundamentalist theocracies, but, though that sort of battle threatens, it is by no means a certainty.

Israel lies, so to speak, in the eye of the storm. I think I’m correct in saying that the eye is actually the calmest part of the storm. Those who would destroy Israel are in confusion around her. It is an extraordinary counterbalance to the threat of annihilation coming from Iran, and even there the rumblings of a popular movement are not far below the surface.

For me, I have a deep sense that God is palpably at work in the history of our generation in this part of the world. For that I am profoundly thankful, even if the outcomes are as yet obscure.


Bob




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HEAVING VOLCANO

Any attempt at “understanding the times” must include watching the events in the Middle East. That part of the world reminds me of a heaving live volcano, constantly drawing attention to itself with outbursts of fiery and dangerous lava, and ever threatening to burst open with a massive explosion. I have a further image of that area: some time ago I had a prophetic picture of the Middle East with Israel at its centre, encircled with hurricanes representing its neighbouring states. The hurricanes were getting ever stronger and more violent and were building up into a huge whirling vortex. Whether you take the image of a volcano or a huge hurricane, however, the meaning of both is the same; the Middle East has huge potential for destruction in the world.

I have been asking myself one question in particular. Why is it that events over the last few years in the Middle East have brought about a huge exodus of Christians from the area?
At one level this seems easy to answer. For example, the decade-long war in Iraq has actually made that country unsafe for Christians. Whereas under Saddam Hussein, a secularist, they had some protection, now, despite the U.S. presence, Christians have been openly and violently targeted by Islamists and some two thirds have had to leave, fleeing largely to Syria and Turkey. Over this last year, with the overthrow of Mubarak, Egypt has now become less safe for Christians for the same reason as in Iraq, and again large numbers of them have fled, many to the West. The trend can be seen elsewhere in the Middle East.

However, one can ask the question, Why this exodus of Christians? at a another level. Does it indicate the development of a deeper purpose in the mind of God? The region has been, of course, for a long time violently and profoundly anti-Semitic and anti-Israel; there is no readiness to accommodate any Jewish national presence. This antagonism, centred in great measure in Iran, is much deeper even than the bitter antagonism directed at Jews in Twentieth century Europe. And now the region is becoming increasingly hostile to Christians (oddly enough this is true even in Israel, despite the large increase of Messianic Jewish Christians). This hostility is real and growing even though reports are constantly coming through of many conversions of Muslims to Jesus in the most extraordinary and miraculous of ways. Is God taking his people out of a cauldron? I hesitate to offer any answer.

However, as far as I can see, all this intense hostility and antagonism both to Jew and Christian can only be indicative of some profound spiritual undercurrent, or, more accurately, some profound spiritual struggle – even an “end time” struggle. The deeper question is, therefore, where is this struggle leading and how will it develop? How violent will it become and how widespread will be its effect? Will it actually lead to a major crack in the Muslim world? To attempt an answer to these questions would be pure conjecture and speculation. The only thing that is certain is that we must keep our eyes and prayer on this part of the world, constantly giving it up to God since clearly it is here that he is working out some major purpose as history inexorably gets closer to its end. We might well pray something along the lines, “Lord, we are watching a volcano about to erupt. Thank you that you are controlling it, watching over your people and are ready to show mercy in the world”. We should certainly pray for the Christians who are homeless and suffering.


To be continued.



Bob




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NATIONAL BANKRUPTCY

When I wrote the booklet “The Contemporary Countdown to Chaos” during the summer the spectre of national bankruptcy over Europe began to appear very menacingly. This last week, after two months of relative absence, it has returned with more menace than ever. Previously it had been confined to smaller countries like Iceland and Southern Ireland, now it is looming over larger countries, most notably Greece and even Italy.

I was utterly taken aback by stark reality of what was happening, "rich" European nations actually facing bankruptcy. When nations go bankrupt, there is no place to run to for help. They can be too big to “bail out”. Italy certainly is. Perhaps in the light of what I had written in the pamphlet, I should not have been taken aback at the development. But I was. It wasn’t so much that I was surprised as that I was appalled, appalled at nations so steeped in debt that they could no longer afford the interest on their debts; nations enjoying standards of living that they could no longer afford, whilst, at the same time, these standards were being perceived as basic “rights”, and civil disturbance was threatening. The “fall out” from the economic explosion of 2008 really was widely and very dangerously making itself felt. I suppose I knew it would happen, but it came none the less as sickening confirmation of the severe word of judgement which rests on the western nations.
This week there is a lull whilst the new Greek and Italian governments try to get organised, but the spectre will be back.

Whereas clear thinking and wisdom belong to God and are his gifts, confusion is always a mark of God’s displeasure, and confusion is so evident in the European leadership. It arises from a fundamental failure to know what really needs to be done with this collapse of solvency. Should solvent nations risk the “bail outs” that might well drag them under water? Are those “bail out”s simply throwing good money after bad? Is there sufficient money anyway for a big enough “bail out”? Even if the countries which need such help agree to put austerity measures into place, will those measures actually restore prosperity? There is, therefore, a veritable maelstrom of uncertainty and confusion facing European leadership, as it walks an uncertain road where it has not walked before.

We should not presume there is some easy economic answer to the problems, not even on the issue of what austerity measures should be imposed to restore economies. The very people who we might think ought to know the answer to that last question, the economists, are themselves divided. Even the IMF (International Monetary Fund) itself, with all its expertise, has destroyed economic growth in a considerable number of nations on which it has imposed restrictions that have proved too severe. So even the IMF has many and powerful critics. The truth is that pulling the economic levers to put a nation back on its feet is a very delicate process and a process for which there is no definitive text book. Thus getting the austerity measures wrong in Europe (and Britain) could do more damage than ever. The problem is not just an economic problem either. Austerity measures inevitably involve huge social issues of anger and discontent, making it a very difficult political problem. That has been immensely evident in the last week or so in the Euro-zone. Yes, confusion and uncertainty are everywhere.

All this gives me a deep sense of the European nations “hanging in the balance” before God. One feels the bottom could fall out. The scenario is a fearful one.

Bob




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